Author Archives: Keith Weiner

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About Keith Weiner

Dr. Keith Weiner is the president of Gold Standard Institute USA, and CEO of Monetary Metals. Keith is a leading authority in the areas of gold, money, and credit and has made important contributions to the development of trading techniques founded upon the analysis of bid-ask spreads. Keith is a sought after speaker and regularly writes on economics. He is an Objectivist, and has his PhD from the New Austrian School of Economics. He lives with his wife near Phoenix, Arizona.

KeithGram: Yield Chasers

A crisis is brewing in Spain.

Spanish banks have borrowed short to lend long.  This means they take in money from depositors (i.e. borrow) and make long-term loans, such as mortgages.  The catch is that depositors can withdraw their money but the bank cannot call the loans.

Imagine if you borrowed money from Joe to lend to Mary.  You promise Joe he can ask for his money back on the first of every month, and you pay him 1% interest per annum.  However, your contract with Mary says she will repay you 1/360 of the principal every month for 30 years.  Mary pays you 4% per annum.  You are locking in a profit for every month this continues.

You are happy until Joe demands his money back.  Then panic sets in.  You must call John, Jim, Jack, and Jonathan to beg to borrow their money.  And you will offer higher and higher interest rates.

At that point, you don’t care about profits.  You are fighting for your life.  It is analogous to drowning.  You don’t care if you lose your money, so long as you can get to the surface and breathe air again.

So it is with banks in Spain.

Central banks have destroyed savers with zero interest rates.  But people should not fall into the trap of chasing yield.  High yield in a zero-interest environment means only one thing.  High risk.

Those who lend to Spanish banks today are chasing a Siren but they will end up dashed to pieces on the rocks.  See: “Deposit Wars” an Act of Desperation by Spanish Banks; Bankia Déjà Vu

Pieces of 50

As we move forwards towards a gold standard, we will need many new innovations (as well as a rediscovery of old things that have long been forgotten).  At the Gold Symposium in Sydney Australia, I saw an exhibitor who has a new, innovative product.  They have thin sheets (almost like wafers, especially the gold ones). They are engineered and precisely scored that one can break off a small rectangle.  With one’s bare hands.  They guarantee that every rectangle will have exactly 1g of metal.  There is a gold product and a silver product.  The individual 1g rectangles are the same width X length, with the silver being about twice as thick.

Gold_wafers

I don’t believe that all, or even most, transactions will be conducted in gold coins passing over the counter.  But gold coins will certainly play a role.  The innovation here is that one can carry a sheet or a smaller-sized quantity, say the size of a credit card.  One only breaks it apart if one needs to conduct a small transaction.  1g of silver is worth about $1 and 1g of gold is worth about $54 at today’s price.

The product is manufactured by Valcambi, a Swiss company that is certified by the London Bullion Market Association as a refiner.  The distributor in Australia is Bullion List (www.bullionlist.com.au).

I am very excited to see such innovations.  I think they are a sign that the cultural tide is turning and the illusion that is irredeemable paper money has been dispelled for more and more people.

Free Market Revolution: A Book Review

In Free Market Revolution, co-authors Yaron Brook and Don Watkins, colleagues at the Ayn Rand Institute, undertook a difficult task.

Since Ayn Rand made the case for egoism as the morality of capitalism in Atlas Shrugged (and more pointedly in Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal), numerous books have argued that free markets produce wealth, discussing various aspects capitalism, and criticizing every type of government interference with markets as impractical. From Milton and Rose Friedman’s Free to Choose to books by George Gilder and others, we have not been spared the practical arguments for capitalism.

Yet the size, scope and power of our government controlled economy continues to expand. Most advocates of limited government treat the expansion as though it’s an inevitable consequence of the nature of government.

Brook and Watkins show that the cause is something else: ideas accepted in our culture. They have set out to make the case, in a book that is short and readable, for a better set of ideas and bring Rand’s morality into the mainstream.

This is an uphill battle. Profit and those who seek it are almost universally viewed with suspicion. Many people assume that if someone is needy, the government has a moral obligation to provide help. Advancing this view is no way to defend capitalism. This is a key point of Free Market Revolution.

Brook and Watkins present an abbreviated economic history, debunking welfare-statist lies, and explore the mechanisms of free markets. They most importantly demonstrate that capitalism is moral.

“A moral defense of the profit motive would have to say that living as a trader, for your own happiness and by your own effort, is noble.”

This puts the emphasis on where it belongs: living by your own effort, trading with others, for the sake of your own happiness.  When it is stated this clearly, who could argue with it?

Throughout the book, they provide insights that are probably new to most readers, and will increase one’s understanding of how people coordinate productive efforts in a free market.

For example, they discuss the problem known as “the coincidence of wants.”

In barter one party may want what the other has, but the other party may not wish to reciprocate. One example in the book is the case  of one man who makes shoes and another who catches fish. but the fisherman already has shoes, no trade is mutually desired. Money, however, makes trade more efficient. Suppose the shoemaker trades his product for whatever commodity is used as money, knowing he can always trade money for wheat or anything else.

Brook and Watkins culminate their discussion:

“…originally money was a material good—usually gold. Gold was the most marketable good in the economy…”

To grasp this is to see the root of the problem with our present worldwide system of irredeemable money. The government prohibits people from using the most marketable good, gold, in favor of the government’s paper money. But the paper, based on debt, is not marketable without legal tender laws that force people to accept it.

Free Market Revolution also discusses competition and the relentless pressure to respond to the market, competitors, innovation, and other changes. Brook and Watkins use an effective anecdote from the early days of Intel Corporation to illustrate the honesty, discipline and focus required to remain in business. When new competitors were manufacturing computer memory chips. Intel was no longer able to make a profit in that business, the co-authors write, so Intel decided to focus on microprocessors instead.

“Finally, [Intel executive Andy] Grove asked then-CEO Gordon Moore, ‘If we got kicked out and the board brought in a new CEO, what do you think he would do?’ Moore replied without hesitation, ‘He would get us out of memories.’ After a long moment, Grove said, ‘Why shouldn’t you and I walk out the door, come back and do it ourselves?’” That’s what Intel did—and it paid off with impressive results for Intel, vendors and consumers.

Free Market Revolution is illuminating in this regard, especially for those unfamiliar with running a business.

However, this book is most likely to convince those already mostly convinced of the virtues of capitalism. It would fill a thick volume or series of volumes to cover the morality of self-interest with regard to capitalism, or a decent history of markets and welfare-statist failures, or how free markets coordinate the activities of all participants. Free Market Revolution makes the mistake of trying to traverse all of these domains.

The writing is uneven. There are many gems, though there are also missed opportunities for greater clarity through editing. For example, in more than one case an important term is defined within an “emdash”:

“The cornerstone of Marxian economics, for instance, is the labor theory of value— the idea that the value of goods produced is a function of the physical labor that went in to producing them.”

I doubt that this will be clear to a reader who is new to Ayn Rand’s ideas and who has not studied economics (and if the reader already knows the labor theory of value, this is unnecessary).

Some definitions lack even an emdash. Rand fans and Objectivists may be familiar with Immanuel Kant and his “categorical imperative”—an unlimited moral duty to sacrifice yourself (emdash irony intended)—while others, such as Tea Party conservatives and independents, may be lost.

Other parts need more information to get the co-authors’ underlying point. Consider this example: “Don’t be confused by the fact that we sometimes pay more for a product than we would like or get paid less than we had hoped. The fact that a gain from trade isn’t as large as we would have preferred doesn’t change the fact that it is a gain.”

This part, included in a section discussing trade, may not suffice for someone who seeks to grasp why health insurance costs so much compared to, say, life insurance. Too much of Free Market Revolution reads like shorthand for those who know the philosophy, leaving those who don’t know as much somewhat confused.

I often hear people complain that a free market doesn’t “work”. What I think they mean is that they don’t think the free market gives them what they want at the price they want. Brook and Watkins understand why this is an error, but, again, their answers and explanations don’t always amount to a persuasive argument.

They write, for instance, that “Upton Sinclair’s socialist propaganda aside, historian Gabriel Kolko notes that food makers ‘learned very early . . . that it was not to their profit to poison their customers…

Will today’s readers recognize the reference to Sinclair’s The Jungle? If not, inserting a second author that most people haven’t read is not helpful.

General audiences attracted to Ayn Rand’s inclusion in the subtitle may be receptive to Brook’s and Watkins’ arguments, but those who like her fiction and want to examine her ideas more closely may be left unmoved or, worse, confused. If one has read Atlas Shrugged and Ayn Rand did not persuade him, then it’s worth asking: will Free Market Revolution?

Free Market Revolution contains a few economics errors, especially in monetary science. Both Keynesians and Monetarists hold that “inflation” means rising prices. Brook and Watkins do no service to the reader—or to the cause of liberty—by ceding this error. Most economists of the Austrian school (to which I expect Brook and Watkins subscribe) define inflation as an increase in money and/or credit (Mine is a more specific definition: an expansion of counterfeit credit).

Promoting the view of John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman, i.e., that inflation means rising prices, is a serious error; industry is constantly increasing efficiency, so this flawed definition essentially cedes to the government that to steal the wealth of those who store it in dollars is acceptable.  Absent inflation, prices would be falling.

Those who have studied Austrian economics and are familiar with what it has to say about liberty are among those who need the most help in putting liberty into the context of morality, and this inflation error, repeated in a number of places, may weaken the co-authors’ credibility with free market scholars.

In many places, Free Market Revolution is excellent. It is written to promote a cause which is both crucial and urgent—especially the cause of moving toward the gold standard. But I am skeptical that Free Market Revolution is likely to have a large impact on today’s readers, let alone on the culture. The challenge of writing such an important book, with such an enticing title, is enormous. Brook and Watkins, who deserve credit for making the effort, rise to it with mixed results.

Banning High Frequency Trading

The financial press and alternative investing blogosphere is all abuzz about proposed German controls that attack High Frequency Trading (http://www.cnbc.com/id/49174317).  Government always justifies its coercive intrusion into markets by appeal to a sense of the “public good”, and its interference never delivers the goodies as advertises (see my doctoral dissertation for a full explanation of this: 

Free Market for Goods, Services, and Money).

In this article, I focus on just one aspect of this new control.  They are proposing to set a cap on the ratio of orders to trades.  At first, this sounds reasonable.  “Why should anyone have 10,000 orders for every trade that executes??”  This is an appeal to emotion, to make the reader angry at the thought that this is somehow cheating or unfair.

Let’s take a look at a shadowy and poorly understood player: the market maker.  He first appeared in the London coffee houses where stocks were traded.  Sellers lined up on one side, in ascending order of price (so the best offer (ask) was at one end).  Buyers lined up on another side, in descending order of price (so the best bid was across from the best offer).

The market maker came in and said he was ready to buy or sell.  He quoted a bid that was higher than the best bid and an offer that was lower than the best offer.  Virtually everyone was outraged, and many thought this newcomer must be some kind of criminal or cheater.  They were wrong.  Their outrage was fueled because the best bid was topped and the best offer was undercut.  How unfair!

The market maker earns his profits by narrowing the bid ask spread.  Today, of course, most people understand this and there are market makers in every liquid market.  What they often don’t understand (judging from the strident tone on many alternative investing blogs) is how he operates.  Liquidity does not mean a willingness to buy from all sellers and prop up the price.  Let’s not confuse market making with central banking!

It is not the market maker’s job to bankrupt himself by buying in front of an avalanche of sellers.  When the avalanche does occur, and the market maker smartly steps aside, the ensuing crash should not be blamed on him.  It should be blamed on the economic climate, the bust phase of the credit cycle, monetary policy (especially falling interest rates), and the liquidity crunches that occur due to the rising burden of debt.

The market maker is working to narrow a simple spread: the difference between the bid and the ask.  As the bid from buyers moves or the ask from sellers moves, the market maker must adjust his bid and ask.  The rate at which he must do this depends on the rate at which others in the market are changing their prices.

Another point worth highlighting is that sometimes a market is slow.  The bids and asks move up and down, but one can observe no trade for an hour or more.  I have observed this more than once in options on copper futures.  In the morning, I execute a trade.  The “last” price immediately updates on my eSignal screen to show this price.  By the afternoon, the bid and the offer could be a mile away from the morning.  And yet my trade still shows as the “last”.

So what will happen if the regulators force market makers not to change their prices more than twice a second, or force them to limit the number of orders based on the number of trades?

Some market makers will be rendered submarginal, and they leave the market entirely.  The survivors will be forced to widen their quoted bid-ask spread enough to cover the risk of a price movement during a time when they are barred from changing their prices.

The net result will be wider bid-ask spreads.  Both producers and consumers will experience this as higher cost, and traders will experience this as higher volatility.  Some traders will profit from this, and the real economy will have to absorb another blow.

Be careful what you wish for!

(c) Sep 26, 2012 by Keith Weiner