Author Archives: Keith Weiner

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About Keith Weiner

Dr. Keith Weiner is the president of Gold Standard Institute USA, and CEO of Monetary Metals. Keith is a leading authority in the areas of gold, money, and credit and has made important contributions to the development of trading techniques founded upon the analysis of bid-ask spreads. Keith is a sought after speaker and regularly writes on economics. He is an Objectivist, and has his PhD from the New Austrian School of Economics. He lives with his wife near Phoenix, Arizona.

Gold Conspiracy Theories

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One of the conspiracy theories that’s popular in the gold community right now is that when the CME and various brokers increased the margin required to hold silver, this caused the price to fall from $49 to $34.  Of course, observing the silver basis does not confirm this claim.

Today, Zero Hedge has a short piece allegedly explaining why the price of gold fell in a short time from $1680 to $1660: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/margin-calls-force-start-gold-liquidation

This is an attempt to have it both ways.  On the one hand, “prices should not be set in the futures market” according to GATA and Ted Butler.  On the other hand, margin calls (which obviously do not apply to physical metal holdings) can and do cause the price to drop sharply.

I don’t see how one can get much of an understanding of the gold market from such hit-and-run pieces, much less actually try to trade and make money!

One of my goals for this blog is to discuss gold and silver without the breathless conspiracy theories.  More later…

Fractional Reserve Is Not the Problem

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In the United States, there are once again TV commercials advertising Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) for residential real estate.  Today, I saw one from Quicken Loans promoted with the tagline “why pay more in interest charges now just to know what rate you will have in 2018?” (they are offering a 7-year “teaser” rate and then the loan adjusts after that.

Why indeed?

This sort of promotion should have made people nervous even before the residential real estate bust in the US in 2006.

What has this got to do with Fractional Reserve Banking (FRB)?  Banks often commit the same kind of sin.  Read on.

There is a common misconception that via FRB, banks lend out more money than they have.  But the very definition of fractional reserve banking is that the banks lend out less than their deposits, though they keep less than 100% of their deposits on “reserve”.  This misconception comes from the failure to distinguish between money and credit.  This is particularly easy to do today because our perverse fiat system has banished money altogether.  Gold and silver have no official role.  Everything that remains is credit.

A “dollar bill”, aka Federal Reserve Note is the liability of the Federal Reserve.  The Federal Reserve has “assets” to back these dollars, namely Treasury bonds (and mortgage back securities, and the Red Roof Inn, and shares of GM, such is the new post-2008 reality).  If you have a dollar bill, you have a credit obligation of the Federal Reserve.  If you use it to pay a debt you owe to someone, then you transfer the debt from yourself to the Fed.  If the recipient deposits the dollar “in” the bank, he is lending it to the bank, and now the bank has a liability to him.

The banking system can create credit.  When the bank receives a dollar of deposit, it will often lend $0.90.  It still owes the dollar to the depositor.  It keeps $0.10 as its asset, and it lends the $0.90 to a borrower.  This loan is also the bank’s asset.  The borrower, of course, can pay someone and that recipient can deposit the money in the same or another bank.  The process can be repeated, and assuming 10% reserves, the total credit in the system can be expanded to a maximum of 10 times the original deposit (the sum of the series 1 + .9 + .81 + .729 …)

The difference between a gold coin in your hand, vs. a piece of paper from a bank promising to pay is made obvious if the bank ever becomes insolvent.  The piece of paper is then realized to be a credit instrument in default.

There is a more subtle distinction that few today, even in the Austrian School, make.  The difference between: (1) a bank takes a 1-year CD on deposit and lends to a real estate buyer for 30 years; and (2) a bank takes in a 1-year CD and lends to a manufacturer to finance receivables for one month.

The difference is that in one case, the bank’s liability is due before its asset matures.  This is similar to what the homebuyer does with the ARM.  He may or may not be ready (or able!) to sell the home in less than 7 years.  But the loan could be repriced such that it is not economical to hold.  At least with residential real estate loans in the US, the loan cannot be called before the final maturity.

The bank that “borrows short to lend long” has no such protection.  And in fact this is one of the principal risks that such a bank faces.  The depositors can demand their money when their CDs mature (or for demand deposits, they can demand their money at any time).  But the bank has issued a loan that it cannot call.

The bank can try to sell it, if there is a bid in the loan market at that moment.  If the run on the bank is large, and if the same thing is happening to other banks, the banking system could in its entirety be forced into bankruptcy, with immeasurable damage to depositors.  One kind of depositor is the corporate payroll account…

Borrowing short to lend long, also known as “rolling” one’s liabilities, is fraud.  No legitimate bank would engage in this activity in a free market (as opposed to our centrally planned central bank based system with bailouts and other forms of “moral hazard”).

The temptation is great, because the rate on short-term borrowing is much lower than the rate on longer-term lending.  This is the same temptation faced by the home buyer comparing an ARM to a fixed-rate mortgage.

But just as with stealing, this temptation must be resisted if one is to stay out of trouble, or in this case bankruptcy.  For a bank engaged in this practice, collapse is inevitable.  It is only a matter of time.

This, not Fractional Reserves per se, is the real problem and the real risk.

A Socialist’s Proposed Fix for the Economy

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Charles Hugh Smith may not call himself a socialist.  But I’ve always found this altruist, collectivist, populist undertone to his writing.  Let’s see what he wrote today.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-you-want-fix-us-economy-heres-start

He has an 8-point plan to fix the economy.  The first thing I’ll note is that he does not address the punitively low rate of interest set by our expert central planners at the Fed.  There cannot be a fix to anything if we leave central planning of money, credit, interest, and discount under the control of an economic dictator.  And there cannot be a recovery without savings, which certainly is discouraged by Zero Interest Rate Policy.

Anyways, 6 out of the 8 points are about marking various asset categories to market value, punishing fraud in this marking, and putting banks into receivership if they are insolvent under the new rules.  It sounds good, upon superficial examination.  But upon deeper thought, he’s missing something important here.

The purpose of financial statements is to present a conservative and realistic view of a business, not a speculative view of how good things could be.  One must consider assets and liabilities slightly differently.  Assets should be kept on the books at the *lower* of either: (a) acquisition price or (b) current market value.  If an asset’s price goes up, it is not normally appropriate for a business to mark it up.

Liabilities, on the other hand, should be kept at the higher of either: (a) acquisition value or (b) market value.  If the liquidation value of a bond goes up, the debtor must show that as a loss of capital.  Otherwise, the balance sheet does not show the true picture.  If this rule were implemented, then the devastating effect of falling interest rates would be obvious.  Those “free” capital gains won by bond speculators come from somewhere: the capital accounts of bond issuers.

It’s hard to fault Smith for not understanding this.  Hardly anyone does.

But two of his points are something else altogether.  One of them proposes to give a free house to anyone whose lender committed any kind of fraud–even if they misrepresented risk to their investors.  This is arbitrary, capricious, and will have massive consequences.

The other was to allow bankruptcy to discharge student loan debt.  I think Smith is motivated by the idea of “soaking the rich bankers” and giving a freebie to people.  I would agree for a different reason.  We need to get rid of the special cases and special exceptions in our legal code, and return to the rule of law.  Either it is fair and proper and moral for people to be able to erase debt through personal bankruptcy, or not.  Either way, student loan debt hardly merits its own special treatment under law.